09 February 2010

Return to Normalcy in 2010

I browsed through this set of presentation slides produced by Deustche Bank Securities.

The contents are as follows:

  • Section 1: How Bad were the Financial Crisis Losses in 2008 - 2009?
  • Section 2: What are the 30 Key Steps in the U.S. Response in 2010
Section 2 is sub-divided into sectorial responses to the Crisis in 2010.
    • A- Response to the Real Estate Crisis
    • B- Response to the Banking Crisis
    • C- Response to the Non-Bank Credit Crisis
    • D- Response to the Economic Crisis
I believe any one who takes his/her time to read through these slides would probably share similar takeaways.
  1. This Crisis is still much a works (recovery) in progress.
  2. Rebuilding of household wealth through jobs is key to rekindling consumption and driving forward the recovery.
  3. Bad loans from the US Commercial Real Estate sector are likely to rock the smaller and regional US banks and more bank failures will be expected, though impact (both depth and breadth) to the stock and credit markets remains to be seen.
  4. Sovereign credit default(s) could shock and derail the global recovery. Recent tales from Dubai and Greece provide examples of what could still go wrong.
  5. More stringent financial reform on a global scale is required to address 'Too Big To Fail' and future systemic risks arising from global capital flows of today's networked economies.
  6. However, governments and central banks worldwide have shown resolve to provide strong dose of fiscal stimulus to jumpstart the economy. Hopefully, the exit strategy will dovetail with the much anticipated recovery.
A journey no less bumpy I'm sure. Volatility will surely be a road trip partner on this one. 

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