27 May 2011

Greece and its Options

Not much left on the table, actually. As the crisis continues in Europe, Greece has less and lesser options to address its debt problems.

This Economist article sums it up.

I am of the opinion that a default/restructuring/reprofiling is but certain to happen. Only question is what will be the consequences of that eventuality? How will it impact the stock and debt markets? Could it be just a 10-20% sharp correction in equities, followed by bargain hunting and eventual return to growth? Or something worse, like a Lehman type of fallout scenario where credit dries up as banks book losses from Greek debt default and choke up interbank lending?

No one knows. While we wait to find out, more caution required. Confirmed.

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